Inflation Outlook
Recently, there has been much talk in the press about inflation. The argument is made that the recent rise in food and energy prices has to filter into the inflation numbers sooner or later, and that interest rates have to rise because inflation is so bad. Frequently this argument is further editorialized with comments such as “I don’t know why the Fed only looks at core inflation. After all, don’t we all have to eat and drive to work? Of course, if you take out everything that goes up, we won’t have any inflation at all!”. This is commonly followed by snickers, as if they are the only ones who could figure this out.
We pay close attention to inflation, which is a lagging economic indicator. Studies show inflation tends to peak at about the same time the economy is bottoming. It has been our opinion that we are in a temporary cyclical upturn in inflation, and we should see inflation come down as the economy slows. The chart below is a Fed model (Chicago Fed National Activity Index)
which shows economic activity and the likelihood of increasing inflationary pressures. The blue line is the value of the index and is charted against the axis on the left. We have added an index of inflation to the graph. The gray area is a graph of the year over year Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. This is the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation and the axis on the right shows the inflation rates. The CFNAI uses 85 different economic indicators as inputs which measure:
1. Production and Income
2. Employment, Unemployment, Hours Worked
3. Personal Consumption and Housing
4. Sales, Orders, Inventories
The Fed model uses a 3 month moving average to smooth the data. The index is designed to be 0.0 when the economy is growing at the long term trend rate. The index is positive when the economy is growing rapidly, and is negative when it is growing slowly. When the index is below –0.70 it is increasingly likely we are in recession. The index has been below –0.70 for the last 5 months. The current value is –1.25. This suggests a continued weak economy in the future. When the index is above 0.7 after the economy has grown for more than 2 years it is likely inflation will rise. This model shows the strong correlation between the overall strength of the economy and inflation. Since the index is in negative territory, this model shows it is likely that inflation will moderate in the future.
Conclusion
Investors should not become distracted by the chatter in the press about the need for interest rates to rise because of inflation. High oil prices and inflation are certainly today's problem, but the leading indicators show inflation is likely to moderate in the future, because of the weak economy.
