Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Federal Reserve Forward Guidance


The Fed & Traditional Policy
The Federal Reserve’s traditional monetary policy tool is the federal funds rate.   The Fed encourages economic growth by lowering the federal funds rate and attempts to slow growth by raising the rate.  Since the financial crisis in late 2008, the Funds rate has been between 0.0%-0.25%; this is known as being stuck at the “zero bound.”  Since then, the economy has been in a liquidity trap, the system continues to be overleveraged, and there is a greater desire on the part of borrowers to deleverage rather than increase borrowings.   

The Fed & Extraordinary Policy Measures
The Taylor Rule, a widely followed “rule” regarding interest rate manipulation, called for a negative Funds rate of -2.0% from 2009-2011.  Since it is not possible to create a negative funds rate, the Fed has had to utilize other, less traditional stimulus tools in this environment. 
 
One of these tools, Quantitative Easing (QE), expands the feds balance sheet through asset purchases in the open market. By doing this, the Fed attempts to lower long term interest rates.  The fed has begun to taper these purchases, however, as the continued efficacy of QE has come into question and some argue that the economy is improving.  Another tool used by the fed is called Forward Guidance.  Through Forward Guidance, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) attempts to communicate where they think monetary policy will be in the future.  This is similar to “jawboning,” where the Fed talks down long term rates by giving guidance about potential rate action in the future.

 
A Brief History of Forward Guidance
Below is a brief history of the feds Forward Guidance taken from the Fed’s statements after FOMC meetings. This appeared in the March 14, 2014 MarketWatch from the Wall St Journal:
1.       12/16/2008:  First Mention “Weak economic conditions warrant exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rate for some time.”
2.       8/9/2011: Added Specific Date “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the fed funds rate at least through mid-2013.”
3.       1/25/2012: Extends Date “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the fed funds rate at least through late 2014.”
4.       9/13/2012: Extends Date Further “are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.”
5.       12/12/2012: Adds Unemployment Goal “will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.50% and inflation is not more than 2.50%.”
6.       12/18/2013: Continues After End of QE “for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends.”
7.       3/19/2014: Drops Unemployment Goal  “likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the fed funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends.”
The primary lesson to be taken from this history is that the Fed reacts to incoming data concerning the economy, and forward guidance is not set in stone.  They have sought to provide guidance to keep long term rates low, but they have revised their comments and forecasts several times since the financial crisis.  They have consistently overestimated the strength in the economy and the need for monetary stimulus.
 
Connecting The Dots
The chart below shows the federal funds rate forecasts by the 16 members of the FOMC from the March 19, 2014 meeting.  There is consensus to keep rates low through the rest of 2014, but the vast majority sees rates higher by the end of 2015.  Yellen recently commented that rates would stay low through the middle of next year. 
However, when asked about the “dots” moving higher, she said we should not pay too much attention to the dots (even though the Fed is publishing them to give us guidance.) Her dovish comments have created uncertainty in the markets and bring into question the usefulness of Forward Guidance.
 
Forward Guidance Has Limited Value
We are in agreement with Yellen about the value of watching the dots.  The Fed has been providing guidance for the last 5 years.  They have consistently over-estimated the growth rate in the economy and have over-estimated inflation as well.  The dots have alluded to rate increases for the last 2 years, but this has not been the case.  We believe it would be better to focus on the growth rate of the economy and inflation expectations.  The chart below shows projected economic growth by the same 16 members of the FOMC.  They have overestimated growth for this year and show it peaking at the end of next year.  They are forecasting growth in the longer run of 1.8% to 2.4%.  These forecasts of sub-par long term growth and significantly higher short term rates are inconsistent with each other.  During the last few years the Fed has expanded its balance sheet and fought diligently in an attempt to get growth up to trend.  It seems unlikely they will raise rates if growth is even slower in the future.


Taylor Rule Revisited
Considering subdued inflation expectations, relatively high unemployment, and uncertainty regarding the future growth prospects of the economy, many question why the fed would consider raising rates. Perhaps the best explanation for the committee’s higher rate guidance is that the Taylor Rule currently says the Fed Funds rate should be about 1.0%, as shown in the chart below.
 
Conclusion
Future Fed actions are data dependent.  The rate of economic growth and inflation expectations will determine the level of interest rates.  Similar policies in Japan have led to sub-par growth and low interest rates for the last 20 years.  Past and current Fed action has likely drawn out the process of deleveraging in our country and will lead to below trend growth and relatively low rates for a long time.  Fixed Income investors would be wise to monitor the economic data, and pay less attention to forward guidance.