Liquidity Risk & Quality
Since CD's are meant to be held to maturity, they are less liquid than traditional bond instruments if the investor needs his/her money before maturity. The bid-ask spread on CD's is greater than municipal bonds, so it is more costly to liquidate CD's. Investors should also remember that only the first $100,000 invested in a CD per issuer is insured by the FDIC.
Most people buy shorter CD's with maturities of 2 years or less. This decision is similar to making a bet that rates will rise by the time the CD matures so the investor can invest at supposed higher rates. The investor is assuming reinvestment risk, because he/she is not protecting their income stream in case rates fall. It is important not to fall into the "rate trap" of purchasing only cash equivalent investments when short term rates are high. A study was completed by Ibbotson Associates in 2005 regarding long-term annual returns from 1926-2004 for fixed income instruments. They came to the conclusion that a portfolio of intermediate bonds has higher expected returns than a portfolio of cash or CD's. The table below showcases the results:
*These are returns on taxable securities and illustrate the higher expected returns for intermediate bond maturities compared to Cash Equivalent investments. On average, intermediate bonds have generated 5.40% annual returns compared to 3.70% returns for cash equivalents (such as CD's).
Tax Ramifications
Many investors are unaware of the tax consequences of an investment in CD's. Taxes have a significant impact when determining the after-tax value of CD's. For example, the table below shows after-tax returns when comparing a CD to a muni for Federal taxpayers in the highest tax brackets:
State taxes can also have a significant impact on returns for muni bonds. In high tax states such as California, the outcome looks like this when both State and Federal tax rates are included for investors in the maximum tax brackets *:
The CD is much less competitive in an after-tax yield comparison in high tax states. Below, a chart is displayed showing the results for a California resident in the upper bracket:
The municipal bond is more attractive compared to the CD in this example, both with and without state taxes included in these calculations.
State Tax-Exempt U.S. Agencies
Another fixed income option with competitive performance is an agency security such as a Federal Home Loan Bank or a Federal Farm Credit Bank. These two agencies are exempt from state taxes, whereas Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs are state taxable. Below is a table stating the various yields over multiple maturities for a state tax-exempt agency and a CD*:
For a chart with the yields from the above table, see below:
We have assumed an even yield for the state tax-exempt agency across the curve. The chart shows the CD yields increasing as the maturity increases. Even at 10 years, the agency has greater after-tax performance than the CD.
*These tables use the maximum tax brackets for the federal level.
Conclusion
Those who are investing in CD's may want to consider investing in other fixed income instruments such as municipal bonds or state-tax exempt agencies based upon the information provided in this post. For some investors, municipal bonds may be a more appropriate and tax-efficient alternative to CD's.
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